By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 114 points. As a result, it continued to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a coincidence of the forecast. The correctional movement continued, where the quotation with surgical accuracy reached the predicted Fibo level of 38.2 (1.3180), after which, the process of stopping followed the restoration. Information and news background had statistics for the UK. For February, there was a decline from 52.6 to 52.0 in manufacturing business index (PMI). . A similar indicator was published in the United States late in the evening at 18:00 Moscow time, where, in principle, they expected a decline from 56.6 to 55.5, but as a result, it received 54.2. Returning to the background information, we have regular splashes concerning Brexit. This time, the European skeptic conservatives represented by the European Research Group put forward to Theresa May the conditions under which they would support her at the ballot in parliament to approve the country's withdrawal from the EU. The terms of euro skeptics are directed towards controversial issues regarding the so-called backstop in Northern Ireland. Lawmakers also insist on a clearly worded, legally enforced provision that would uniquely predetermine the text of the agreement. The deal, according to euro skeptics, should contain something more than just mentioning the temporary nature of the mechanism of the backstop, as well as a clear description of Britain's s actions regarding the British-Irish border in case of a failure of trade negotiations with the European Union.
Today, there is practically nothing in terms of the economic calendar. The only thing that can be singled out is the index of business activity in the UK construction sector in February, where they expect a decline from 50.6 to 50.3. In any case, we are listening to the informational background, which can give additional volatility in the market.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that there was a rollback towards 1.3250, after the quote reached the predicted Fibo level of 38.2 (1.3180) and then followed by a passing slowdown. A temporary amplitude oscillation 1,3200 / 1,3255 is probably assumed, where we analyze the boundaries for the breakdown.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions to buy, as written in the previous review, traders were still looking at the value of 1.3180 on the subject of a rebound. If we do not have positions, it is better not to hurry and see and wait for a fix higher than 1.3325.
- We consider selling positions lower than 1.3200, but it is worth understanding that the transaction is classified as risky due to having a fulcrum. . The primary outlook is 1.3180. A more conservative approach is considered already lower than 1.3180.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback from 1.3180 in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective focuses on correction and the medium-term perspective retains an upward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 4, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 46 points. In this case, you need to look at the information background, if it is, then the volatility will increase, otherwise we will be clamped in the amplitude of 60-90 points.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
