From a comprehensive analysis, we see an update of local minimums, with the transition to a sideways movement. And now about the details. The past week reflected a vigorous downward move, where sellers managed to pass more than 500 points, which led to an update of the lows and a descent of the quote to the area of April 2017. In fact, we were faced with a panic mood that brought down the financial markets and arranged a kind of fixation of positions in the dollar around the world. Relative to the last oscillation, we see the outlines of a variable flat with the borders of 1.0650/1.0775. These frames serve as a regrouping of trading forces, which does not exclude a further decline.

Regarding the theory of downward development, we see that the minimum in the face of the mark of 1.0325 was not reached, but this does not mean that the price will not be able to get closer to this level in the near future since the external background is in this position. Thus, the forecast for a further decline towards 1.0500; 1.0350 (1.0325) remains with traders, where it is possible that due to the aggravation, we may see a critical mark of 1.0000.

In terms of volatility, we record high activity indicators, where there is an acceleration on a daily basis, which is not ignored by speculators. Regarding the dynamics of the average daily value, we see that this indicator has almost doubled since the beginning of the year, which means that the EURUSD pair has lost its status as a conservative instrument.

Volatility details: Monday-155 points; Tuesday-183 points; Wednesday-115 points; Thursday-278 points; Friday-166 points Monday-151 points; Tuesday-234 points; Wednesday-243 points; Thursday-326 points; Friday-194 points. The average daily indicator relative to the volatility dynamics is 96.67 points (see the volatility table at the end of the article).

Analyzing the Friday day every minute, we see a V-shaped oscillation, where at first the quote managed to partially recover, locally returning us to the area of the level of 1.0775, but after that, at the start of the Europeans, the quote resumed its downward movement, eventually updating the minimum.

As discussed in the previous review, traders are still inclined to further descend and this is confirmed by the update of the lows.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see literally a free fall, which came on March 10 and still does not have a corrective course. In fact, the downward trend that took place back in 2008 has not gone away, it continues to develop.

Friday's news background did not contain any noteworthy statistics on Europe and the United States, and all the market's attention was focused on the external background.

In terms of the general information background, we see that the coronavirus continues to cover almost all countries where huge rates of cases are recorded. So, the epidemiological situation tells us that 338,698 have already been infected in the world, and over the past day in the United States, a record of 9,065 cases of infection was set, which scares the whole world with its scale. In Europe, where the rate of spread is not decreasing, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was found to have a coronavirus, has already gone to home quarantine

"In this regard, the Chancellor decided to immediately go to home quarantine. She will be regularly tested for coronavirus," the Cabinet said in a statement.

Also infected were the chief Brexit negotiators, Michel Barnier and David Frost, who are now in self-isolation.

In turn, a member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB), Ignazio Visco, during an interview with La Stampa newspaper, said that the actions of the regulator are sufficient, but the EC can take great measures to deal with the consequences of the COVID-19 virus.

"The set of measures adopted was effective in easing tensions. We believe today that this is enough, but we are ready to do more if necessary," said Ignazio Visco.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have statistically significant data for the EU and the US, and all attention will continue to focus on the COVID-19 virus and the consequences it brings.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a reverse downward movement, which has already returned the quote below the mark of 1.0700. In fact, the quote is located at a distance of fewer than 40 points from the update of the local minimum, but it is worth noting that the movement in the conditional sideways course (1.0650/1.0775) is still preserved. Our main task is to identify the breakdown of this flat, where the price will take focus already behind its aisles. In this case, you will be able to catch the main turn of the course.

In terms of emotional mood, we see that high activity remains in the market, where the external background continues to put pressure on speculators, who take advantage of the noise and pump volatility into the market.

Detailing the available period every minute, we see that the pattern regarding the start of the Europeans is still relevant. The downward move resumed just at the beginning of the European session, lowering the quote to 1.0667.

In turn, traders are waiting for the price to overcome the area of 1.0636/1.1650 to resume short positions. An alternative scenario is considered if the price is fixed above the area of 1.0775 relative to the four-hour chart.

We can assume that the fluctuation within the range of 1.0650/1.0775 will still remain in the market, where the main tactic is to catch a downward move in the case of a breakdown of the lower area of 1.0636/1.1650.

Based on the above information, we will output trading recommendations:

- We consider buying positions if the price is fixed higher than 1.0775 on H4, with the prospect of a move to 1.0830-1.0850.

- We consider selling positions if the price is fixed below the area of 1.0636/1.0650, with the prospect of a move to 1.0500.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments still signal a sale relative to all major periods. It is worth noting that minute intervals are now subject to lateral movement, so the indicators may be variable.

Volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation from the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 23 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 132 points, which is already 37% higher than the daily average. It is likely to assume that even a fluctuation in the range does not cancel the acceleration, and the external background will continue to focus on speculative activity on itself.

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.0775*; 1.0850**; 1.1000***; 1.1080**; 1.1180; 1.1300; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650*; 1.1720**; 1.1850**; 1.2100.

Support zones: 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500***; 1.0350**; 1.0000***.

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** Psychological level