From the point of view of complex analysis, you can see a rapid upward movement, where the quote has gained new scales, urging speculators who are already overheated on long positions, and now let's talk about the details.

The trading week is almost closing, so it's time to take preliminary results. An upward trend that has excited the minds of market participants, has gained new scales, where it is already difficult to say that we have only impulse. Inertial movement, similar in scale to the period of February 21, is what we have in the market, where the past day put a bullet in this judgment. So, the jump in activity led the quote not only to the level of 1.1240, but consolidated above the level of 1.1350, which means a lot.

Now, traders see a real possibility of moving to the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1440/1.1500, which just reflects the conditional maximum of the previous inertial move 02/21/20/09/03.

Regarding theories of market development, there are more and more discussions related to the upward trend, which will make adjustments to the structure of the medium-term downward trend from 2018. To confirm the theory, a quote needs to be consolidated above the 1.1440/1.1500 area, which will lead to a recovery process of 45%, but this may not be enough if the structure of the existing move is built on the strength of speculators.

Analyzing the past trading day in detail, it is worth highlighting that the main surge in long positions fell on the candle at 11:30 UTC+00 [time on the trading terminal], which coincided with the results of the ECB meeting. The subsequent acceleration arose at the start of the American session.

As discussed in the previous review, traders expected a corrective move due to severe overheating, but prices did not consolidate below the level of 1.1170, but the alternative scenario with buy positions worked again and brought another profit.

The recommendation from Thursday regarding the purchase is "We consider to buy positions higher than 1.1260, towards 1.1300 - 1.1350."

In terms of volatility we can distinguish a consistent acceleration from day to day 53 ---> 80 ----> 91 ----> 167 points where the dynamics of the past day is considered the highest for 49 trading days. In fact, speculative interest prevails in this particular case.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the high rate of change of the course, where eight trading days the European currency rose by almost 500 points.

The news background of the past day contained European retail sales data, the decline rate of which was already record-breaking, but it continued to rise from -8.8% to -19.6%. It is worth considering that they predicted an even deeper decline to -24.0%.

The main event on Thursday was a meeting of the European Central Bank [ECB], during which the base interest rate was left at a record low, as well as the deposit rate of -0.5%.

"The Governing Council expects that the ECB's key interest rates will remain at their current or lower levels until it sees that the inflation forecast will steadily approach a level close to, but below 2% within the forecast period," the ECB said.

At the same time, the European Central Bank was pleased with the decision to increase the economic support program during the pandemic to the level of 1.35 trillion euros. That is, the volume of the new program of quantitative easing PEPP [Pandemic emergency purchase program] in the program increased by 600 billion euros.

"The eurozone's economy is experiencing an unprecedented recession. There was a sharp decline in economic activity associated with the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken to contain it," said ECB's President Christine Lagarde.

At the same time, we had weekly data on the United States labor market, where we would publish applications for unemployment benefits. So, the number of repeated applications amounted to 21,487,000, which demonstrates a new growth. Initial applications, on the contrary, show a decline, but their number is still very high 2,284,00.

In fact, a combination of factors led to a new growth of the single currency.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have the report of the United States Department of Labor, where the unemployment rate is likely to set a new record of 19.5%, which can be considered a shock to the US economy. At the same time, we will see a reduction in the number of jobs by another 8,870,000. The current US values may continue to put pressure on the US dollar.

The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is full of news again. So, we expected the final data on the GDP of Europe and US Inflation in the beginning. After which the Fed meeting is exciting for everyone and always, where they do not plan to change the refinancing rate, but Jerome Powell's comments can affect the market again.

The most interesting events displayed below (Universal Time) --->

Tuesday, June 9

EU 9:00 - GDP (1 sq.)

EU 9:00 - Employment rate (1 sq.)

USA 14:00 - The number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS, for April

Wednesday, June 10

USA 12:30 - Inflation

The results of the Fed meeting - 18:00

Fed press conference - 18:30

Thursday, June 11

USA 12:30 - Producer Price Index

USA 12:30 - Applications for unemployment benefits

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, you can see the price fluctuation within the range of 1.1350, where the maximum of the past day has already been updated. The characteristic overbought is already visible, which leads to an unstable inertial stroke design. At the same time, speculative interest is still high, and therefore, it is not necessary to exclude a further upward move towards the 1.1440/1.1500 area.

In terms of the emotional mood of the market, it is worth highlighting an extremely high coefficient of speculative positions, which leads to high activity.

It can be assumed that a technical correction will come in the very near future, where depending on speculative interest, the starting point can be like the current slowdown, which is below 1.1300, or when approaching the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1440/1.1500. The correction value can be approximately 30% of the total inertial stroke.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- We consider selling positions in two versions: the first is below the level of 1.1300, in the direction of 1.1180; the second warrant proceeds from the theory of the convergence of prices with the area of interaction of trade forces 1.1440 / 1.1500, where the quote slows down the movement and forms a rebound in the opposite direction.

- We consider buying positions above the level of 1.1400, in the direction of 1.1440 - 1.1500.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the movement of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods indicate upward interest due to the general mood of the market.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(June 5 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 57 points, which is a lot for the start of European trading session. It can be assumed that speculative sentiment will continue to stir market activity.

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.1440 / 1.1500; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1,2100

Support Areas: 1.1300; 1.1180; 1.1080 **; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level