From the point of view of complex analysis, we see the fourth rebound from the range level of 1.1180. Now, let's talk about the details

The last trading day was on the verge of touching the range level of 1.1180 [1.1165 // 1.1180 // 1.1190], where the quote managed to go below the value of 1.1190 for the first time in six days, but it did not help sellers, there was a speculative rebound almost immediately and based on which, the quote returned to the area of the beginning of the trading week.

The horizontal movement of the price is becoming more and more distinct every day, where the previously set downward tact from the area of interaction of trading forces 1.1440/1.1500 goes into the background. Will the current fluctuation become the future range? Why not? This theory was considered by traders at the beginning of the previous month, talking about the price movement between values 1.1180//1.1300//1.1440(1,1500). It is worth noting that the formation of a new range is intended as a temporary platform for regulating the emotional behavior of the market, which may later lead to another downward move.

Time will tell whether this development will be our immediate future or not. But what can be said for sure is that the existing fluctuation of 1.1180/1.1285 (1.1300) is an accumulation structure that will become a kind of catalyst for trade forces.

I think that working exclusively on the theory of development of the range is a wrong step, since speculative excitement can play the game differently. If our tactics of local operations still remain, then the best approach would be to work on the breakdown of the accumulation boundaries, which will make it possible to be on the wave of speculative interest.

Analyzing the past day in detail, you can see that the round of long positions arose once again at 12:30 and lasted until 14:00 [time on the trading terminal], after which there was a slowdown followed by a pullback. The sale of the US dollar was felt throughout the market.

In terms of volatility, an acceleration of 8% is recorded relative to the average daily indicator, which indicates an increased speculative interest in the market.

As discussed in the previous review, the trading positions worked perfectly. Initially, there were local operations towards the level of 1.1190, where they made profit-taking. And then the behavior of the quote within the range level was analyzed 1.1165//1.1180//1.1190, working on Breakdown tactics/Rebound.

Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), you can see that the quote rests on the range level, relative to which stagnation is formed.

The news background of the past day contained data on the index of business activity in the European manufacturing sector, where growth was set from 39.4 to 47.4 with a forecast of 46.9. The reaction of the market was mixed. Growth was recorded immediately after the publication of PMI data, but literally half an hour later, a round of short positions appeared, which led the quote to 1.1185.

The main event is rightfully considered an ADP report in the United States, where the US dollar confidently began to lose ground, although the employment showed it was by no means bad. What confused investors? Let's look at the details. The report came out slightly worse than the forecast, but still there was a huge increase in employment of 2,369,000, and the previous data was completely revised for the better, that is, in may, instead of a decrease in employment by 2,760,000, there was an increase of 3,065,000, which may be better than this. Despite this, the dollar continued to decline, as if it was hit by a wave of sales caused by a stressful situation, just against the background of the emotional behavior of speculators in the market.

In terms of informational background, we have the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Committee on Open Market Operations of the Fed. Management members noted that the US economy will need strong support from the monetary policy for a long time to come. Based on the minutes, it is clear that the committee is not considering raising the interest rate now and in the near future.

"The modeling showed that the committee will have to maintain highly stimulating financial conditions for many years to significantly accelerate the recovery from the current serious recession," said in the minutes.

In turn, US President Donald Trump is pleased with the work of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), and for the first time in a long time, he does not long for his resignation.

"I am very pleased with Jerome Powell, the stock exchange is now in almost the same condition as before the coronavirus pandemic," said Donald Trump.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, perhaps the most important event of the week is the report of the United States Department of Labor. So, the unemployment rate should decline from 13.3% to 12.3%, and 2,900,000 new jobs should be created, which please investors, since this is the sign of economic recovery.

If the data match, and the fundamental analysis does not come under the blow of emotional speculators, then the chance to strengthen the US dollar will not take long.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see an update of the local maximum on June 29 (1.1285 +/- 2 pip), where the quote is trying to keep the previously set round of long operations. I'm not sure if the breakdown of the local peak would mean a signal for a further upward move, since everything is very similar to a speculative bay, which can quickly change position. The pivot point for the move is the level of 1.1300, where the positions of speculators are probably directed. After that, it is possible to repeat the period earlier, where on a systematic basis, traders found resistance, thereby continuing the process of fluctuation between the values of 1.1180/1.1300 (1.1350).

It can be assumed that a slowdown will occur within the level of 1.1300, where in case of a positive reaction to the report of the US Department of Labor, the dollar will receive significant support and an impulse will appear in the new wave of speculative positions in the direction of 1.1250-1.1190.

An alternative scenario is considered in the case of holding the quote higher than 1.1310, with a local move to 1.1350. A break in the upward direction will occur only if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1360 on the four-hour period.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that indicators of technical instruments signal a purchase due to speculative activity and the return of quotes to the area of 1.1300.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(July 2 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 50 points, which is already more than half of the daily average. It can be assumed that the given round of acceleration will still remain on the market, and the information and speculative background will help in this.

Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.1300; 1.1440 / 1.1500; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support Zones: 1.1180; 1.1080 **; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level