EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair attempted to resume the upward movement on May 11, but failed to settle above the 1.2175 extreme level. However, volatility was quite good during the day, although not the highest. We cannot say that the movements were any special or that the fundamental background with macroeconomics strongly influenced the pair's movement. No important reports during the day, not a single significant event. Thus, the pair moved exclusively on technique on Tuesday. Only three signals were generated during the day, on which they did not manage to earn much. However, traders can take a look at the 5-minute timeframe themselves and make sure that the movements were not the most worked out. The first signal was formed at the very beginning of the European trading session - to sell - a rebound from the extremum level of 1.2145. After its formation, the price went down 15 points, which was enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven, afterwards the pair returned to the level of 1.2145. It returned and surpassed it, thus forming the second buy signal of the day. This signal was more successful, as the nearest level 1.2175 was reached. However, it was located too close to the price, so here it was at the discretion of traders: either close it manually, or wait for Take Profit or Stop Loss at breakeven. But it was possible to earn about 13 pips on this deal. The price rebound from the level of 1.2175 turned out to be very clear, but after the pair went down by around 18 points, there was a sharp upward reversal, due to which the Stop Loss was triggered at breakeven. As a result, traders could earn only 13 points on Tuesday.
EUR/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, you can clearly see that after Friday's growth, the EUR/USD pair could neither correct nor continue the upward trend. In general, the global upward trend continues, therefore, in the long term, we continue to wait for the euro to strengthen. Nevertheless, in the context of one or two days, the pair needs to correct in the area of the important Ichimoku indicator lines or the rising trend line, or to surpass the level of 1.2175. On Wednesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2113, 1.2145, 1.2175 and 1.2190. Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines are currently located too far from the price, but in general they also remain important reference points. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. An important US inflation report for April will be released on Wednesday. If it turns out that the consumer price index has accelerated again in comparison with the month of March, then the US dollar may again fall under the market sell-off. A report on industrial production will be released in the European Union, which is much less significant for the euro/dollar pair.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 20 points during the last reporting week (April 27-May 3). During the same time, a group of non-commercial traders opened 7,000 buy contracts and 6,000 sell contracts. Thus, the net position increased by only 1,000 contracts over the reporting week, which is very, very little for the euro. Thus, we can say that the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report did not record any changes. But in general, the situation with the European currency remains rather strange. One might say that the upward trend in the euro has resumed, but professional traders do not observe an increase in long positions. The first indicator in the chart perfectly shows this. Moreover, according to the COT reports, the upward trend is drying up and losing its bullish momentum since last September. However, in fact, all this time, the upward movement is still present, so the data from the COT reports now does not quite accurately reflect what is happening on the market. The second indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has been falling since last September. But if major players reduce the number of euro longs and increase the number of shorts, then the euro should decline. But in fact, it is not decreasing. We have only one explanation for this: the continued growth of the US money supply. Since the number of dollars is constantly growing, no matter what the actions of large players in the foreign exchange market, they simply cannot block the actions of the Federal Reserve. The dollar supply is constantly increasing, so even if large players are also constantly selling euros, the euro would still rise. Such is the paradox, but over the past year we have seen many paradoxes and illogicalities. One has only to look at the chart of the movement of the pound...
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
