EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair crashed down on Thursday. The movement was the reverse of Wednesday's movement, when the pair showed strong growth for no apparent reason. We have already said that formally the reason was a rebound from the important level of 1.0806, which is a 15-month low. Yesterday, the euro started to fall exactly at the time when the results of the European Central Bank meeting began to be announced. And despite the fact that, by and large, there were no results, since all the parameters of monetary policy remained unchanged, yet it was at this time that the euro began to fall, which created the appearance of a market reaction to this event. From our point of view, a certain part of the market has simply set a trap for other traders. On Wednesday, the euro showed absolutely groundless growth, and on Thursday it simply returned to its positions. That's all that happened. But these highly volatile movements could lead to losses among traders. ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech also did not give any fundamentally new information. Lagarde noted the high risks to the European economy due to the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but it was hardly a surprise to anyone. There were no statements regarding a possible rate hike in the near future.

As for trading signals, they were not the best on Thursday. The first sell signal was formed when the movement had already begun. And it started abruptly and quickly. Therefore, it was possible to enter the market with short positions only at the level of 1.0855. After that, the price went down about 100 more points, forming two signals near the level of 1.0806, but in the end it still settled above this level, where traders could close the deal. It was possible to earn 30 points on it.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report turned out to be more interesting than the previous ones. Even paradoxical, because the big players were building long positions. During the reporting week, the number of longs increased by 10,800, and the number of shorts in the "non-commercial" group - by 4,800. Thus, the net position increased by 6,000 contracts. This means that the bullish mood has intensified. It is bullish, since the total number of long positions now exceeds the total number of short positions with non-commercial traders by almost 30,000. Accordingly, the paradox lies in the fact that the mood of traders is bullish, but the euro is falling almost non-stop. We have already explained in previous articles that this effect is achieved by an even higher demand for the US dollar. It turns out that the demand for the dollar is higher than the demand for the euro, which is why the dollar is rising against the euro currency. Based on this conclusion, these COT reports on the euro currency now do not make it possible to predict the pair's further movement. They are, one might say, meaningless. However, if the demand for the euro starts to fall among professional players, this may lead to an even greater fall in the euro, since the demand for the dollar is likely to remain high due to geopolitics and macroeconomics.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

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Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on April 15. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

EUR/USD 1H

It is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe that the pair very abruptly began a new round of correction and also completed it quickly. During the growth on Wednesday, the pair failed to work out and update its previous local high. This means that no matter how strong the growth is, the downward trend still persists. We have a classic trend, where each next peak is lower than the previous one. Unfortunately, all the "classics'' end there, as there is still no trend line or channel. However, we continue to insist that the euro will continue to fall in the medium term. We allocate the following levels for trading on Friday – 1.0729, 1.0809, 1.0938, 1.1036, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1011) and Kijun-sen (1.0848) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no important events or reports scheduled for April 15 in the European Union. In America – just not the most significant report on industrial production now. Volatility should decrease during today.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.