EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair continued an unintelligible movement on Monday, most similar to a flat. After a rebound from the level of 1.0806, a more or less tangible movement only began in the afternoon... naturally, to the downside. Thus, even on Monday, when no important event or publication of a report was planned either in the US or in the EU, and Easter Monday was celebrated in many countries of the world, the European currency still fell in price. So now it is moving at full speed to the level of 1.0729, after which only a 5-year low of 1.0636 will be the target. No more than 150 points remain to this level. The geopolitical background was also absent on Monday, but the situation in Eastern Ukraine is heating up. According to information from various sources, the Russian army is going on the offensive in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, that is, in the near future, the military conflict may enter the second phase. Naturally, there is no question of any de-escalation now, and negotiations can be considered frozen.

If we talk about trading signals, there was only one on Monday. The price very inaccurately rebounded from the extreme level of 1.0806, after which it managed to go down about 20 points. To be honest, it's hard to even say whether it was worth trying to work out this signal. Prior to its formation, the pair moved in absolute flat with low volatility. It was very difficult to count on the trend movement. Therefore, it was probably better to skip this signal and not take unnecessary risks.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are more and more discouraging... because the big players continue to build up long positions in the euro currency! During the reporting week, the number of long positions increased by another 10,800, and the number of shorts from the "non-commercial" group decreased by 1,000. Thus, the net position increased by 12,000 contracts. This means that the bullish mood has intensified. It is bullish, since the total number of long positions now exceeds the total number of short positions for non-commercial traders by 40,000!!! The green line of the first indicator in the chart above clearly signals that the mood of professional players has been bullish in the last three and a half months. Accordingly, the paradox lies in the fact that the mood of traders is bullish, but the euro continues to fall almost non-stop, which is also clearly seen in the chart above. We have already explained in previous articles that this effect is achieved by a higher demand for the US dollar. The demand for the dollar is higher than the demand for the euro, which is why the dollar is growing in tandem with the euro. Based on this conclusion, the data of the COT reports on the euro now do not make it possible to predict the further movement of the pair. They are, one might say, meaningless. However, if the demand for the euro currency also begins to fall among professional players, this may lead to an even greater fall in the euro exchange rate, since the demand for the dollar is likely to remain high due to complex geopolitics and macroeconomics.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 19. There is no peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow and there cannot be.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 19. The United States primarily benefits from the conflict in Ukraine. The euro and the pound continued to fall.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on April 19. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

EUR/USD 1H

It is clearly visible that the pair very abruptly began a new round of correction and also completed it quickly, while the downward trend still persists and does not cause any doubts, even despite the absence of a trend line or channel. All factors continue to speak in favor of the dollar's growth. We allocate the following levels for trading on Tuesday – 1.0729, 1.0758 (supporting level), 1.0806, 1.0924 (supporting level), 1.0938, 1.1036, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0931) and Kijun-sen (1.0840) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthrough" levels - extremes and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price went in the right direction of 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events or publications are scheduled for April 19 in the European Union and the United States again. Most likely, we are waiting for another flat day or a day with indistinct and unpredictable movements. Nevertheless, the downward trend persists, so, of course, if we consider options for opening positions, then it would be for selling.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.